Vote early and in person if you can!
By Hank Silverberg
Have you voted yet? I know the election isn't until November 3rd, but early voting has started in four states, and it appears people are
In Virginia where my wife and I voted this past week, almost
200,000 cast in-person ballots in the first five days of early voting.
Elections officials in Virginia say additionally 926,000 absentee/mail- in ballots had been issued as of September 25, almost double the number who actually voted absentee four years ago. This year, fear of Covid-19 has been added to the list of reasons you can use for applying for an absentee ballot in Virginia. Not so, in many other states. Early in-person voting remains in Virginia until October 31st. After that you will have to show up on election day.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/virginia-early-voting-nears-200000-in-first-week/ar-BB19qUbH
I have written here before about the problem with the U.S. Mail, thanks to what may look like a concerted effort by the big Trump donor and Postmaster General, Louis DeJoy, to slow down service around election time.
Unlike the President, I am NOT worried about voter fraud, simply because there is no evidence of any organized effort to cast fake ballots. But I am concerned about voter perception when the results start to come in.
When the polls close on election night, Boards of Election in every county, city and town in America will start counting. They will tally the votes cast in-person on machines or paper ballots FIRST. Those are the results we are likely to see reported by the TV networks as polls across the county close November 3rd.
By midnight or so, there will be enough votes counted to tell us who is winning. BUT--and this is a big BUT--we will not know who the winner is and may not know for a week or two unless it's a landslide.
There will be a record number of mail-in and absentee ballots to
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| (The line I was on for early voting on Sept 18) |
Here's the danger: History shows Democrats tend to use mail-in ballots or absentee ballots more than Republicans.
Let's say at midnight on the third, it appears President Trump is ahead with small margins in enough states to get the 270 Electoral College votes he needs for re-election. You can expect him to declare victory. But then as the mail-in and absentee ballots start to be counted over the following few days, there could be a Biden surge and a shift that could change everything.
Remember, Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 with victories in two key states by less than 100,000 votes, even though he lost the nationwide popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes.
The result, lawsuits and charges of fraud by Trump which, judging from past events, many of his supporters are likely to believe without any evidence.
That's what Trump was setting us up for this week when he declared he might not accept the traditional peaceful transition of power once the election is over.
And that was not lost on many people as the Senate began to discuss Trump's nomination to the vacant seat on the Supreme court. I won't go into the play by play yet about Judge Amy Coney Barrett's qualifications. But Republicans have been trying to convince everyone that it's a routine appointment that every president has an obligation to make. No so.
The timing is at issue because four years ago, the GOP refused to even hold hearings on the SCOTUS nomination from President Obama, at the beginning of 2016 because it was an election year. As I wrote last week, the stakes are very high in this election. Senator Amy Klobuchar, (D-MN) whom my regular readers know was my first choice for the Democratic nomination for President, put it all in focus with this response to Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) who was pushing the GOP party line on the SCOTUS nomination. You can listen to her long response at the link below. It's worth the extra click.
https://twitter.com/SenAmyKlobuchar/status/1309605367282839558?s=20
The bottom line, the election could be a real mess.
This is why I am urging everyone to break out their masks, wash their hands, stand six feet apart and go vote in person either early or on November 3rd. We need to #LeaveNoDoubt who the winner is.
If you want to know your state's rules on early or mail-in voting, check out this link which breaks it down state by state.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/early-voting-in-state-elections.aspx
The Great Debate
On Tuesday night, Biden and Trump will meet for their first nationally televised debate. There will be no handshake because of Covid-19, but they will be far enough apart not to need masks. The audience will be socially distanced , wearing masks and tested for the virus before they are allowed to attend.
I have some predictions. (If you are reading this late in the week after the debate, you can see if my predictions were right.)
I have already voted so I will be watching more for what they say and how they say it.
Part of that will be for my students in my Communications classes. I expect I will talk with them about the speaking style of the two men, their body language and other non-verbal communication and their word selection.
What I suspect you will see:
1) Expect very few specifics on policy from either man. Debates never produce much of that.
2) Expect Biden to chose his words carefully and tout his long record.
3) Expect Trump to interrupt Biden and insult him throughout the entire debate.
4) Expect Biden to criticize Trump's poor decisions on Covid-19, and expect Trump to counter that he did a great job and any problems with supplies at the beginning were all Obama and Biden's fault, even though the pandemic came three years into Trump's term.
5) Expect Biden to mis-speak or stumble at least once (maybe more), and no matter what else he says, that will be what the conservative press will talk about for days.
6) Expect Trump to bring up Hunter Biden at least once or maybe more, even though a Congressional committee has already said he has done nothing illegal. Expect Biden to get angry at Trump for mentioning it.
7) Expect a lot of what comes out of Trump's mouth to be hard to follow in any logical sense, and expect him to say Hillary Clinton or e-mails at least two times.
9) There will be no "spin room" this year because of Covid, but you can expect Fox News to say Trump won and CNN to say Biden won, and for the rest of us to wonder why we wasted 90 minutes listening to the same old rhetoric over and over again. (Because we've run out of things to watch on Netflix?)
10) There will be very little change in the polling because there are very few undecided voters out there, and the few who have not decided will not be influenced by the debate.
And finally, expect to hear some talk during the debate about Trump's tax returns. The New York Times reported on Sunday that the President paid just $750 dollars each in taxes in 2016 and 2017 and paid no taxes at all in 10 of the last 15 years. The reason? He claimed in tax returns to have lost more than he earned in many of those years and used tax law to dodge any payments. Trump has denied the story is true and still refuses to release his official returns. But it's sure going to dash his claim of being a good businessman.
Even if it's all legal it's a perfect example of what's wrong with the current tax code which favors the rich at the expense of the middle class. The GOP's last round of tax cuts in 2017 made the gap even wider with only small cuts for most of us and big cuts for corporations and the rich.
One other thing I will be watching on the debate: the ratings. There is some indication that more voters are starting to take this election seriously. We shall see. (If the ratings are high, Trump will take the credit if they are low he will blame Biden.)
The debate will be broadcast on all the major networks from Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland at 9pm, with Chris Wallace of Fox News as moderator.
There will be two more presidential debates (October 15 & 22) and one between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence on October 7, which might be more interesting.
And then there is this:
People are still dying from Covid-19.The death toll has risen to over 205,000 and is climbing. The number of people getting the
Why? Because disinformation has cluttered the internet that conflicts hourly with reputable health care experts.
The President has polluted the atmosphere by ordering those at the CDC and elsewhere in his administration to downplay the numbers.
A large number of researchers are working worldwide to come up with a vaccine, but they are rejecting the President's claim that they will have one by election day. Now, Trump has indicated he will not approve the stricter FDA standards for the vaccines designed to make sure they will be effective and safe. Instead, such approvals will be run by the White House.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-covid-vaccine-cdc-stricter-standards-may-not-ok/
Really? The science-deniers around Trump who have gone along with deregulating the coal industry to pollute our waters with coal ash and denied climate change, are now going to overrule the Food and Drug Administration on the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine that could save millions of lives?
This type of thing is what creates disinformation on social media and in marginal publications, and brings on confusion. It's why lots of people don't wear masks, think their own breath can kill them and attend large gatherings without social distancing.
Don't expect a safe and effective vaccine before the election. Don't expect one by New Year's Day or even Valentine's Day. Maybe by May Day?
In the meantime, don't be a fool. Wear your mask, social distance and wash your hands. Even if you are at low risk for getting Covid-19, do what is responsible and patriotic by protecting your family, friends and neighbors.
It's not political. It's science.
(Your comments and suggestions are welcome)
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