How To Watch Election Returns
by Hank Silverberg
Election night has always been a big deal. After months of primaries, campaigns, rhetoric and surprises, watching the returns always solidifies the will of the public and gauges the mood of the local populace or the whole country. I spent 40 years covering such things. Election nights are often long grueling events for journalists, but it always gets the adrenalin pumping. By midnight, enough results are usually in to call it, and you could get the feeling of "a job well done!"
Not so this year. Why? Because there is a pretty good chance that when midnight rolls around on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, we will NOT know who the next president will be, and possibly won't know who will control the Senate come 2021.
There are many scenarios that may play out. But there is one in particular that is giving me, and probably many other people, nightmares. I have been thinking about it for weeks, and now some of the President's advisors have anonymously confirmed the worst. The horror story was laid out on Halloween in this tweet:
With this in mind, here's my suggestion for my former colleagues and other journalists handling election coverage on Tuesday.
1) Deal with actual votes, not projections or exit polls.
2) Be careful when calling any state in one of the candidates columns until it is VERY obvious, based on actual votes tallied compared to actual votes cast.
3) Constantly remind the audience that there are millions of absentee and mail-in ballots that have to be counted, and that could take a few days and may swing the results the other way.
4) Don't let the pundits and party spin teams take control. Shut off any partisan spin on votes that are not already counted.
5) Remind your audience repeatedly that the counting may go slower than in past elections because of the change in how people cast their votes this year.
6) Explain how absentee and mail-in ballots are counted and why it could take days.
And finally:
DON'T RUSH TO JUDGEMENT ON THE RESULTS.
For the people watching the returns come in on TV:
1) Purchase a nice bottle of wine on Monday and get out the wine glasses for Tuesday night. (Some cheese and crackers would be good, too.) Avoid the hard liquor until the results are final.
3) As the votes come in, watch and listen to whether the votes counted include early voting in-person numbers or just votes cast on election day, and what the procedure is in each state for processing and counting mail-in/absentee ballots.
Explanation: This is very important. Some states are not allowed to process the ballots until the polls close. Others are allowed to process them when they come in, but not count them until the polls close on election day. Processing a ballot means taking them out of the outside envelope and checking them against voter rolls by bar code, then setting the unopened inside envelope with the actual ballot aside until the polls close, to count them. It will take longer to count these votes in states that don't allow pre-election day processing to sort the envelopes.
4) As the votes come in, hopefully reporters will explain that in some states the mail-in ballots need to be POST MARKED by Nov 3, but can actually arrive after election day and still be counted. In Ohio, a battleground state, for example, those ballots can arrive as late as November 13th and still be counted. (There have been court challenges to many of these provisions and you can bet Trump's attorneys are already on it.)
5) Unless it's a major blowout by one of the candidates (which IS possible), both sides will be claiming victory.
Example: Republicans tend to vote more in person on election day, Democrats are more comfortable voting by mail.
It could appear Mr. Trump has won on election night, but by Wednesday or Thursday as the mail-in votes are counted, there could be a "Blue Wave" towards Biden giving him the victory. Don't fall for any claims of a "rigged" election or "voter fraud".
And, it's a myth that elections are always settled by election night (despite the President's whining). Absentee ballots must be counted. In a close race, whether for city councilman or president, they often make a difference. The actual numbers are not certified for days. And that was the way it went in the past, before this year when over 91 million people voted early and millions voted by mail.
So for everyone, it could be a week or two before the results are clear. Stay calm and don't over react. (This is where the wine comes in.)
Get Ready For Increased Weather Disasters:
While most of us have been focused on the election or Covid-19, there is a warning for the future that could spell a greater disaster. Just this past week Hurricane Zeta left six people dead, two million without power and millions of dollars in damage along the Gulf Coast. At the same time, wildfires in the western U.S. killed 33 people, burned million of acres of woodlands and destroyed hundreds of homes.
The World Meteorological Organization, https://public.wmo.int/en an agency of the United Nations, concludes that the number of people who will need international humanitarian help because of weather related disasters like fires, hurricanes, tornados and drought could rise 50% by 2030.
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| (Hurricane Zeta from the ISS Courtesy, NASA) |
This is more than just a few more hurricanes. Early warning systems are becoming more critical in protecting lives. Yet just one in three people around the world are covered by such systems like tornado or fire warnings.
What is the cost in lives and treasure? In the last 50 years there have been two million people killed and $3.6 trillion in economic damages from 11,000 disasters. Imagine that doubled?
Update: Conspicuous Confederate Flag Removed:
Say goodbye to that Confederate flag that used to fly right next to I-95 South just north of Fredericksburg , VA. It was a big question
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| (My photo of the flag that has been removed) |
But the need for an easier commute in the growing population of Central Virginia did what public animus could not.
The State bought the land on which the flag sits, along with nine other parcels through eminent domain. It is needed for the Rappahannock River Crossing Project--the widening of the bridge--that has been a growing commuter bottleneck. The project has been underway for more than two years, but the State just acquired the land on which the flag sits.
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| (The Gadsden Flag) |
This past week the Confederate flag was taken off the pole and replaced by two flags--The Stars and Stripes at the top and the "Don't Tread on Me" flag, commonly called the Gadsden flag, just below it.
I suspect that is not going to end the controversy completely. The Gadsden flag originated during the Revolutionary War as a symbol of breaking oppression from British rule. But it is named for Christopher Gadsden from South Carolina, who was also a plantation and slave owner.
The Gadsden flag was also adopted more recently by the far right-wing Tea Party that calls for small government and less taxes. Once the road dust settles and people start spotting that flag on what is now State-owned land, the protest is likely to continue and possibly grow.
The Trump Petri-Dish:
I could not write this week without doing something on the uptick in Covid-19 cases AND DEATHS across the country. More than 9 million Americans have had the virus. More than 230,000 have died from the virus. There are a lot of reasons for the increases. The continued resistance to wearing masks is chief among them. A recent poll shows 92% of the public believe they should wear a mask as a simple preventative measure. But there remains a vocal minority opposed to masks on the ridiculous grounds that they infringe on their freedom. These poeple are helping to spread Covid.
There is also Covid fatigue. We are all tired of the restrictions that
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| (The Covid19 Virus remains a big threat) |
There are other actions that are down right stupid, like big college parties and football rallies.
A best example of stupidity is highlighted in a study by Stanford University that has directly linked more than 30,000 cases and 700 deaths to rallies held by President Trump where social distancing was nonexistent, and most people did not wear masks.
https://news.yahoo.com/super-spreading-trump-rallies-led-030740262.html
The President has done little to encourage people to practice some basic prevention techniques, and his cavalier and pathetic attitude about the deaths and economic ruin his actions have exacerbated may very well cost him re-election.
If that's the case it should be a lesson to everyone in government, including a large number of Governors and Senators, particularly Republicans, who have been as slow to respond to the second wave as they were to the first.
(Your suggestions and comments are welcome. See comment section below)
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