Election Night Results May Be Deceiving   #195

By Hank Silverberg 

Sometime around 11 p.m. on Tuesday night we will be hearing about the election results for the apparently close, and definitely significant, governor's race here in my home state of Virginia. 

All the polls indicate that former Governor and Democrat, Terry McAuliffe, and Republican businessman and Trumpite, Glenn Youngkin, are in a statistical tie as the days count down to November 2nd. 

The election is being forecast as a referendum on how President Biden is doing in his first few months, and whether Republicans will be able to pick up seats in Congress in 2022.  That may or may not be true. The pundits and political analysts are often as wrong with their forecasts as your local weather forecaster is. 

But there is something unique to watch for. It's becoming a trend that may make elections harder to forecast and easier to shout fraud, just as the last President did in 2020 without any substantiation.   

Early voting has changed the way the ballots are counted, and it can be a confusing process for the public and some journalists who should know better. 

 The Virginia Public Access Project, which keeps track of all things involving the election, says 

 Early Voting in 2021 General Election (vpap.org)

1,142,155 (yes, that's over 1.1 million) people voted as of Saturday when the early voting ended. Virginia voters do not register by party, so there's no way of knowing how many of those voters are Democrats, Republicans or Independents. Both parties will try to claim it was their voters who came out as a spin leading up to the election day vote. But there's really no official way of knowing.  

Of those who voted early, 858,571 voted in person early, 282,584 voted by mail. That is remarkably much higher than the 192,000 who voted early in the last governor's race in 2017. In the presidential election year of 2020, 60% of all Virginia voters cast their ballots early.  

So what does all this have to do with election results on Tuesday night? 

Here's where it gets tricky and confusing and could lead to false claims of fraud. 

By law, election officials can pre-process those mail-in ballots received before election day. But the ballots can't be counted or added to vote totals until election night, at the same time election officials are counting votes that are cast on election day. That means slow counting with tallies jumping by huge numbers once they are added to the machine tallies from election day and the early in-person voting. These are the so-called "vote dumps" you heard so much about in 2020 that produced all that nonsense about fraud.  

It means that one candidate can look like he has a big lead as election day votes are counted, but then can drop way behind as the mail-in vote tallies are added on. 

For the public and the journalists, that means a long night of numbers that don't really show who is winning or losing. 

Added to all this are ballots that come in the mail at the last minute, which often are not counted until days after election day. They could change things in a close race. 

Bottom line, if it's a close election, stay cool. Don't make assumptions and ignore all the talk of fraud, or "found" votes.

There are almost six million registered voters in Virginia. More than 4.4  million of them voted in 2020, and more than 2.6 million voted in the last governor's race in 2017. 

If you are reading this blog a few days after Election Day, it's possible the results won't be clear yet. 

Glasses For The Blind? 

It looks like Geordi LaForge's visor, from Star Trek might not be science fiction much longer. The Journal of Clinical Investigation reports this week on a new experiment which linked a brain implant to a camera mounted on a pair of glasses.  The technology bypasses the eyes altogether, and sends

(LeVar Burton as LaForge)

signals directly to the brain. It allowed a blind former science teacher to play a video game. She could see  a character holding a gun and detect which hand it was in. During the experiment the woman was unable to detect all letters in the alphabet, but she could discriminate some letters like I, L, C, V and O. But it could be a while before this technology is practical. Vision impairment is one of the most common disabilities in the world, and there are numerous other research projects underway. New clinical trials on this angle are slotted for 2024.  

Scientists used a tiny brain implant to help a blind teacher see letters again : NPR

Anti-Semitism Survey

Have you heard someone make an anti-Semitic remark in the last year? The American Jewish Committee's "State of anti-Semitism in America Report" says about 17% of Jews they surveyed have heard such comments in the past year.    

‘Where is the outrage?’ What American Jews and general public say about anti-Semitism (msn.com)

The survey was done in September and just released this past week, on the 3rd anniversary of the attack on the Tree of Life Congregation in Pittsburg which killed 11 people.  

In questions asked to the general population, 65% had heard the term "anti-Semitism," but 18% were unsure what it means. 

The same group was also asked if they had seen any anti-Semitic incidents like negative remarks about Jews on the internet, or physical attacks on Jews or their religious facilities. Ten percent said yes, just once, 31% said more than once, while 59% said no.

The report seems to indicate that much of the anti-Semitism may be tied to perceptions of Israel. 

One question asked, "Do you view the statement "Israel has no right to exist" as anti-Semitic or not? 

Eighty-five percent said it was, 15% said it was not. 

 Dumbest Quote of The Week:

This week's quote comes not from a person but from a news release put out by the campaign of Virginia Republican candidate for Governor, Glenn Youngkin. 

(Loudoun County in red) 

Loudoun County, in the northwest part of the state is a key battleground this year. It's the fastest growing county in Virginia with over 406 thousand people, and leaders there are dealing with a lot of new diversity issues along with suburban sprawl. A Republican stronghold in the past, it's been blue in the last few elections. Youngkin needs to do well there to win, so he's spending lots of time there. 

This then comes from his campaign's news release on his latest trip to Loudoun County.

"Advisory:Glenn Youngkin to Hold Final Campaign rally in Loudon County" 

Please note the incorrect spelling of Loudoun County in the advisory. The mistake was repeated four more times in the same news release put out on October 30th. 

To be fair, this is a common mistake made by people who don't live in northern Virginia. 
And Youngkin himself probably didn't write the news release. But he wants to be governor. This mistake makes you wonder what kind of people he would choose to work for his administration who would make such a careless mistake. As far as I could fathom from an internet search, it has never been corrected. 

(Your comments and suggestions are welcome)

(Copies of my latest book "The Campaign" can be purchased at the links below. Or you can buy a copy by emailing me at:

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