A Three-Way #279
By Hank Silverberg
It's only April, but the 2024 presidential election is heating up now. It could be one of most historical decisions in U.S. history.
But what hasn't been talked about is how much of a significant impact Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s third party bid might have on the outcome. History has taught us that it is the Independent voter, not registered with each of the major parties, who usually decides presidential elections, and a recent Quinnipiac University poll had Kennedy polling 36% among those registered as Independents.
Among all voters, that same poll had Trump at 39%, Biden at 38%, and Kennedy at 13%
(the poll had Biden leading Trump 48%-45% with no third party candidates).
Kennedy has little chance of actually getting elected, and has even had trouble getting on the ballot in some states. Right now he is on the ballot in only one state--Utah. But his selection of Nicole Shanahan as the VP candidate should increase his chances of getting on the ballot in many more states which require the vice presidential candidate to be on the ticket. All he needs to influence the outcome of the election is to get on the ballot in several swing states. Politico is quoting Kennedy's campaign saying they have enough signatures to get on the ballot in at least five other states.
That produces the big question: who will Kennedy hurt more, Trump or Biden?
Even though the Kennedy clan is supporting Biden and has disassociated themselves from RFK, Jr., the Kennedy name alone is probably going to draw some Democrats away from Biden.
But Kennedy, who openly opposed the Covid-19 vaccine and has taken some unorthodox positions on a variety of issues, may also attract Republicans or Independent voters who just can't stomach Donald Trump.
It is conceivable that the Kennedy vote may actually decide the election in November if he does well in some of the swing states. History has good examples of how it can or how it can't.
*Ralph Nadar got only 2.7% of the vote in 2000, but in that nail biting election, that may have been enough to put George W. Bush in the White House (that's the election that went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court because of trouble counting the votes in Florida).
*Ross Perot took 19% of the vote in 1992. But many experts say that was not the reason George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton, who still won by five million votes (Perot did not get any electoral college votes).
*Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party run in 1912 may be the best example of third party impact. As a former president, he finished second in that election, with 27% of the popular vote and 88 Electoral College votes. That smashed Republican William Howard Taft's re-election bid (Taft got 23%). The results put Democrat Woodrow Wilson in the White House with only 42% of the voters in his column.
*There is also 1968 when the country was as deeply divided as it is today. The issues then were highly charged: the Vietnam war and Civil Rights. George Wallace managed to get 13.5% of the vote and carry five southern states to win 45 Electoral College votes. That put Republican Richard Nixon in the White House with only 43% of the popular vote (Hubert Humphrey lost by less than 1% of the popular vote but lost big in the Electoral College because of Wallace).
So it will be interesting and possibly historical to see if Kennedy's campaign has any traction and any impact on the outcome in November.
I had the opportunity to interview Kennedy several times at the beginning of my career and his when he was an environmental lawyer working to clean up the Hudson River in New York. He sounded much like a traditional Kennedy in those days. He doesn't sound like the same man today.
As a voter, you should listen to what he has to say before jumping on the third party bandwagon. Listen carefully to Kennedy before going that way. He is not his father, nor his uncle.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3894
Bridges
The disastrous accident in Baltimore that knocked down the Francis Scott Key Bridge has renewed attention to the thousands of bridges across the country that may be in poor shape. The Key Bridge was 50 years old and in relatively good shape when it was struck by a containership and collapsed into the Patapsco River. Six construction workers on the bridge, died as a result. Its destruction and the impending loss of billions of dollars in revenue for the Port of Baltimore and surrounding community, highlights the importance that bridges play in the economy of the nation.
So this figure should raise some eyebrows. The government says there are 46,100 bridges in the United States are in poor condition. They carry more than 167 million vehicles a day. That's about 7.5% of all bridges in the country. Four-fifths of them have problems with the legs holding them up or the arms supporting their load. And the government says 17,000 of these bridges are at risk of collapsing from a single hit by a boat or car. There's also the risk from extreme weather or overuse by heavy trucks.
An analysis by the Associated Press says more than 15,800 of those same bridges were in poor shape a decade ago, so they are working on borrowed time and are a disaster waiting to happen.
There is some hope, though. The massive infrastructure bill, known as Build Back America, pushed though by the Biden Administration in 2021, is infusing more than $40 billion into bridge construction and maintenance over the next five years, the largest amount dedicated to such projects since the interstate highway system was built 70 years ago. That will fix or replace over 7,800 bridges. And there's $110 billion more from the same bill that is in the pipeline for bridge improvements and repairs in the future.
It's only a dent in the problem though. The American Road and Transportation Builders Association says an estimated $319 billion is needed for bridge repairs nationwide.
Why is it so bad? Could it be years of neglect by a dysfunctional Congress focused on other lower priority issues?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/30/business/americas-bridges-climate-infrastructure/index.html
It's About Time!
This story made me do a double take. It seems
A study from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at University of California San Diego says the negative leap second comes from the increased melting of the polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica, which actually decreases the angular velocity of the Earth more rapidly than before.
Stated simply, we may have to readjust all of our clocks because global warming has slowed the Earth's rotation and force global time keeping to adjust. The impact may be noticeable by 2029.
It's not clear to me what this might mean for leap day or calendars, but climate change is very real.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00850-x
Baseball Is Back
Here is the best news of the week. The baseball season is back. Like most fans I have high hopes that my team, The Boston Red Sox, will make it all the way to the World Series. Spring and the opening
November is not that far away. Until then, play ball.
Dumbest Quote of The Week!
This week's dumb quote comes from someone you probably have never head of before. Her name is Nicole Shanahan, and she is now running for vice president on an Independent ticket with Robert Kennedy, Jr.
The quote actually comes from a year ago, but came to light just this week because she is now in the public eye. Politico reported on it. Shanahan, who made her money in the high tech field, is known for giving lots of money to science involving women's reproductive health. And at her early announcement she lashed out at the IVF industry, accusing them of making too much money off of women hoping to get pregnant. That doesn't sound too far off as a real issue until you go back and look at this statement she made to a panel of the National Academy of Medicine in 2023 when talking about projects she'd like to fund:
"I’m not sure that there has been a really thorough mitochondrial respiration study on the effects of two hours of morning sunlight on reproductive health. I would love to fund something like that.”
She gave the group $150,000. It's not clear if she was serious, but it sure sounds pretty dumb.
It does sound almost Trump-ish.
Note to my readers. You may have noticed I had no blog entry last week. A nasty bug kept me out of the loop and unable to write, breaking a long streak (with one vacation) that goes back more than three years. I hope this entry starts a similar run.
(Your suggestions and comments are welcome)
My recent book "The Campaign" can be purchased at the links below. Or you can buy a copy by emailing me at:
HankSilverberg@gmail.com for instructions on how to get a copy at a reduced price and with my signature)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B084Q7K6M5/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-campaign-hank-silverberg/1126429796
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