Scenarios #306
By Hank Silverberg
The election is just a bit more than two weeks away. While much of the media has been focusing on the presidential race, it could be the race for Congress and the U.S. Senate that could set the real agenda for the next four years, and possibly beyond.
Here are some scenarios which make me focus on the House and Senate.
Scenario 1: Kamala Harris is elected President, but she enters office next year with a Republican-controlled House and Democrats in control of the Senate.
Her problems will be similar to those that have faced President Biden since 2020. Republicans have shown little interest in compromising on anything, and have basically held up most legislation in Congress. As of now, the 118th Congress has been the least effective Congress in history, placing just 78 public laws on the books, with the GOP leadership notably killing the only real chance for immigration reform-- a bipartisan bill that had been worked out over months. Much of that comes from the ineffectiveness of the past two House Speakers, Kevin McCarthy and the incumbant, Mike Johnson.
Biden's major bill, the Build Back Better infrastrurture bill, was approved in the last Congress and this Congress has basically agreed to nothing significant. Harris would have the same problem with a split Congress, House Repubican-controlled and Senate-controlled by Democrats. And little would get done.
Scenario 2: Trump wins the election but Democrats retain control of the Senate, and Republicans contuinue with a small majority in the House. Trump will use Executive Orders on whatever he thinks he can get away with, because much of his extreme policies would be blocked by the Senate. A Constitutional battle would ensue over just how much power the Executive has to issue orders on certain things. More divisioin, more chaos.
Scernario 3: Harris wins the election and Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate. There would be a flurry of progressive legislation that would make our heads spin, but Harris would have trouble controlling the extreme left wing of the Democratic party, which wants everything from reparations for slavery to suspension of all military aide to Israel. The result would be a Republican victory two years from now in the mid-term elections.
Scenario 4: Trump wins the election and Repubicans keep control of the House and take control of the Senate. The result is a flurry of legislation banning abortion nationwide, restricting birth control, banning transgender health care, eliminating the Civil Service, and cutbacks in Social Security for all new recipients, among other things.
There would also be an attempt to round up all illegal immigrants and put them in detention camps, which would bring massive protests and court challenges.
There would also be an immediate withdrawal of all aide to Ukraine, resulting in a collaspe of the Zelinsky government, and a complete victory for Russia along with a threat once again to abandon NATO.
This would likely bring a Demcratic victory in the Senate, and possibly the House in the 2026 mid-terms if Trump hasn't already called out the troops to squash his "enemies".
You think I am exagerating? Get back to me a year from now.
NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED!
A Federal Judge Reprimands Florida
"To keep it simple for the State of Florida: it's the First Amendment, stupid." Those words from U.S. District Judge Mark Walker when issuing a
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The amendment to the state Constitution would override Florida's current six-week abortion ban.
The ad features a woman named Caroline who has terminal brain cancer who needed to end her pregnancy in order to receive treatment that could extend her life.
The letter from the state, designed to intimidate the TV stations to remove the ads, claimed the commercial was false and dangerous because Florida's current law allows exceptions for the life of the mother.
But the judge said the state has its own ad campaign opposing the ballot inititive, and demanding that the opposing commercials be removed amounted to censhorship.
So the ads will keep running until a hearing is held on October 29th. It should be noted only one station, WINK, had stopped running the ad because of the letter.
Pandamania Is Back!
Okay, so maybe you did not miss this story. But it's worth reading more.
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(Bao Li, Courtesy of Smithsonian National Zoo)
The National Zoo in D.C. has taken delivery of two new Giant Pandas. The new Washington power couple are Bao Li and Qing Bao, who are both three years old, will stay for ten years. And there's a family connection here. The new male panda is the offspring of Bao Bao, who was born at the D.C Zoo in 2013. He was sent back to China with his parents in 2023 when a previous agreement expired.
The last year was the first time the National Zoo had not had pandas since 1972 when the first pair was sent as a diplomatic follow-up to President Nixon's visit to China, the first by an American president.
It seemed unlikely that the D.C. Zoo would get any new pandas because of the cool-off in relations between the U.S. and the People's Republic of China in the last few years. But China may need the cash, a millon dollars a year, that the U.S sends to China for renting the pandas. The China Wildlife Conservation Association which runs the world's only panda habitat, costs a great deal to maintain.
The pandas are getting accustomed to their new surroundings but won't be available for the public to see until January 24th.
https://nationalzoo.si.edu/dcpandas
https://www.georgetown.edu/news/dc-pandas-return-ask-a-professor/
Dumbest Quote of The Week!
The dishonor this week goes to South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. Appearing on NBC 's Meet the Press on Sunday, he was asked about all the Republicans who are supporting Kamala Harris for President. To them Graham said:
"What the hell are you doing?"
He should be familiar with that question, because many Republicans asked him that same question after he announced his support for Trump way back in 2016 at a time before Trump took control of the Republican party and turned it into a cult.
(Your comments and suggestions are welcome)
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