WAR! #377
By Hank Silverberg
On the surface, getting rid of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a good thing. He has been the devil for the last 40 years, oppressing his own people and supporting proxy terrorist around the world, including Hamas, the worst of them all. Thousands of Israelis, Americans, Iranians and Gazans have died, directly or indirectly because of him.
But watching the attack on Iran unfold over the weekend, the big question on everyone's mind was "why now?"
The U.S. had been negotiating with Iran over its potential nuclear weapon's program, which was quickly restarted after President Trump killed a previous deal during his first term and restarted again after air attacks last June that the President said had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear capability.
So now Trump has some explaining to do.
What was the imminent danger that allowed him to act without the consent of Congress? It's the same question many in Congress have been asking about his assault on Venezuela back in January.
Both appear to be a violation of the War Powers Act, specifically passed after the Vietnam war to prevent such shoot-from-the-hip reactions.
Mr. Trump needs to explain the direct imminent threat or he is going to find strong opposition across the country for continuing any war with Iran. It could be seen by many as an effort to divert from other divisive issues like ICE excesses and the Epstein files, or to impact the upcoming midterm elections.
Then there is the issue of our goal. Okay, Khamenei and some of his thugs are dead, but like the power vacuum we saw in Iraq after the elimination of Saddam Hussein, the chaos can be worse.
Mr. Trump campaigned on a promise of "no more endless wars", and yet here we are in a war with no clear-cut path for how to end it.
One other big aspect of this war is the impact on complex Middle East politics. There is a strong indication that both Israel and Saudi Arabia were pushing Trump to do what he did. It is rare they agree on anything. And the Gulf States, like the UAE, Qatar, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait wanted to stay out of any conflict, but they were forced into it when Iran's retaliation included attacks on them because they have U.S. military bases.
The risk of a widening war always exists. Shrapnel has been falling on Jordan, which lies between Israel and Iran. And in Iraq, the fragile peace between Sunni and Shiite militia is again threatened because they have support from opposite sides.
Israel, under intense criticism for its mass destruction of Gaza, may get some praise for ridding the world of the likes of Khamenei, and Hamas will certainly be further weakened by this new war, but the Israeli people are in bomb shelters again and most of those people shouting "free Palestine" will have difficulty understanding the complexity of it all.
And finally, there is the impact on the global oil market. Prices will go up around the world, and as history proves, we will feel it here in the U.S. at the gas pump. Iran is also a major supplier of oil for China, and any military action in the Persian Gulf and the shutting down of the Straight of Hormuz will disrupt the flow, putting China into play.
Sometimes good things have bad consequences and frankly, the Trump administration never looks at the big picture. That has proven to be bad news for everyone in the last year. And it will create a great deal of stress within the administration, in Congress and across the country as the inevitable casualties among U.S. military personnel mounts.
I will point out again that President Obama had a deal with Iran to stop nuclear weapons production, and Iran had been complying with it until Trump canceled it during his first term.
History has proven that just dropping bombs never works. It won't work this time, either.
Back To The Drawing Board For Artemis?
There's been another setback for man's return to the Moon. NASA'S Administrator, Jared Isaacman, is saying that the agency's plans to put a man on the Moon by 2028 are not realistic, and another preparatory mission is needed first to lay the groundwork. So, there will now be an additional
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| (Artemis two on luanch pad, NASA) |
Apparently, the original plans to land on the Moon by 2028 involved the use of too much untested technology all at once.
NASA does still plan to launch the Artemis II mission in April once engineers fix a helium pressurization problem on the rocket's upper stage.
That mission will send four astronauts around the Moon and bring them home safely.
But now it looks like there will be at least two other missions with new equipment before man steps foot on the Moon again.
Twelve men walked on the Moon during the Apollo missions between 1969 and 1972, but the program was then cancelled for cost reasons.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasa-artemis-moon-program-overhaul/
ICE Cops Posing As NYPD
This was bound to happen, and it's the main reason Democrats and others have been attacking some of the tactics used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. The NYPD responded to a call on the Columbia University campus about two men wearing dark clothing who were hanging around a dormitory. When the NYPD arrived, they found two ICE agents who had gained access to the building claiming they were "police" looking for a "missing child". They then arrested Ellie Aghayeva, a student from Azerbaijan, who they claimed had overstayed her student visa. The incident has highlighted the lack of transparency in ICE arrests. The Department of Homeland Security says they had badges around their necks and had announced they were federal agents. But such deceptive practices, like claiming to be searching for a missing child, are not considered good police work and often damage law enforcement credibility.
The student was later released after the city's new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, who happened to be in D.C. at the time, spoke with President Trump about the arrest.
(You suggestions and comments are welcome)
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Excellent blog Hank, very informative and clear thinking
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