Time to Think

Just The Facts ! #391

By Hank Silverberg

We are rapidly approaching a midterm election where all seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be chosen. An analysis done by the Cook Political Report last month shows that just 16 of the 435 seats are considered toss-ups, with the rest of the 419 seats likely to stay with the party that currently controls them. It varies a bit with Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA) predicting that only 13 congressional races will be competitive. Either way, the direction of the next Congress will be decided in a few swing congressional districts across the country.

Voters will have to decide what to do based on a few facts relevant to their own districts, and most likely won't focus on the bigger issues, like war and peace, climate change or the growing federal deficit.

Turn on the TV and listen to voters who will tell you they are going to be doing their "own research" before making a decision. I have written here before about how many people simply don't believe the mainstream media anymore, and will go searching the internet for their own "facts".

Here is what is frightening about that scenario as America and Israel continues its war with Iran, and Russia and Ukraine continue a fight that may have an impact on Europe for years to come.

A poll taken a while back by Politico found that only 23% of the public can find Iran on the map.

Another poll taken by Morning Consult revealed that only 34% could find Ukraine on the map.

It's likely many voters don't know that Ukraine is fighting Russia simply to survive, or that Israel is fighting its war against Hamas in response to decades of attacks and border incursions climaxed by the October 7th invasion and massacre.

Here are some basic facts:

Ukraine remains the only buffer between an aggressive regime in Moscow and the rest of Europe. NATO, which includes U.S. troops, reaches as far as Poland, right next to Ukraine.

Since 2022, Russia's military has had nearly 1.2 million casualties. Ukraine has had close to two million.

About 75,000 residents of Gaza have been killed, according to the Hamas health ministry, which does not separate civilians from military casualties or those killed by friendly fire, and cannot really be a trusted source. Hamas had about 40,000 fighters at the start of the war. Those fighters don't seem to be present anymore. You do the math.

Israel lost 1,200, mostly civilians, in the October 7th Hamas invasion and 2,039 have died in the war that followed, many of them civilians killed by drone or rocket fire from Gaza or Lebanon.

Fact: Both these wars are of vital importance to the security of the United States. The war with Iran is just over 100 days old, and there's no real peace deal. The Center For International Policy says we have spent $1.2 billion a day on the Iran war.

Here in the U.S.:

Despite all the rhetoric over voter ID as the GOP pushes the Save America Act requiring mandatory voter ID in all states, here are some basic facts:

Thirty-six states already have some kind of voter I-D at the polls, though the rules vary. And cases of voter fraud remain small and rare. An Associated Press review in six swing states in the 2020 election found fewer than 475 instances of voter fraud out of 25 million ballots cast in those states.

These were easy FACTS to find from reputable sources. If you are a voter and want to do your "own research", make sure you use only reputable sources.

If you are planning to vote in November, and I hope you will, please make sure you know all about your candidates (and ignore the attack ads by the opposition).

https://truthout.org/articles/only-16-house-races-are-actually-competitive-in-2026-midterms-analysis-finds/

https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/states-that-require-id-to-vote-4d1365

https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_identification_laws_by_state

News You May Have Missed

Food Insecurity remains a big problem for many families across the country, and it is often worse during the summer when children do not get free lunch or breakfast at school. President Trump has tried to make such federal food benefits like SNAP that are administered by the states, conditional on compliance with his policies on gender and immigration.

But now, after a lawsuit filed by 20 states and the District of Columbia, a judge in U.S. District Court in Massachusetts has ruled that those conditions are "unlawful" and vague, and are designed to force policies on states, making the policy "unconstitutional".

The benefits, which total $74 billion, go to 40 million Americans, including about 30 million children nationwide.

The Administration's policy does not explain exactly what activities are prohibited in order to receive the grants. But the lawsuit says they relate to gender ideology, women in sports, and immigration policy.

The injuction on imposing the new rules is preliminary. More legal maneuvering is expected.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/judge-pauses-usda-plan-to-tie-snap-benefits-to-trumps-gender-immigration-ideology/ar-AA24ZHyc?ocid=TobArticle

California Vote Count

The President is screaming "cheating" again as the vote in the governor's race in California drags on. But Donald Trump, like some in the right-wing media and many in the public at large, don't understand the unusual voting process in California.

There were six candidates for governor there consisting of four Democrats and two Republicans. Once the results are final, the top two vote getters, no matter what party they are in, will face each other in a runoff in November.

There are 23 million registered voters in California,

and counting their ballots is complex.

The first votes posted on election night are from mail-in ballots that were received before Election Day and counted. Votes cast at early voting locations are also tallied but not made public before Election Day. Then the Election Day votes are tallied and finally added to the total. Then they will count mail-in ballots posted on Election Day, which are received within seven days after Election Day.

All the mail-in ballots have to be signed on the outside, and that signature is compared to a signature on file to make sure it's accurate. That takes a lot of time.

Then there are disputed ballots missing a signature, or provisional ballots which have to be checked one by one.

Some argue that those mail-in ballots received ater Election Day, no matter when they were posted, should not be counted, but California says they can be counted as far out as seven days after Election Day.

Confused? Lots of people are. But the meticulous signature checks on the mail-in ballots makes it less likely there will be fraud, not more.

https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/vote-counting-process

Dumbest Quote of The Week

This week's dumb quote comes from Maine Democratic Senate candidate, Graham Platner, trying once again to explain away his Nazi tattoo on his chest, which he has now had re-inked into something else.

“I’ll just be up front: The more they talk about it, the more I get to talk about the fact that I got that because I was a combat Marine. That’s why I had that.”

Platner says he was drunk when he got the original tattoo and didn't know what the artwork symbolized. Really? You think that makes him smart enough to be a U.S. senator? That's not his only problem. There are accusations of physical abuse from former girlfriends. He's running against long-time Republican Senator Susan Collins, who was considered vulnerable. Not so much after all.

(You suggestions and comments are welcome)

My recent book "The Campaign" can be purchased at the links below. Or you can buy a copy by emailing me at: HankSilverberg@gmail.com for instructions on how to get a copy at a reduced price and with my signature)